Prepare for the shock of rates.

This story first appeared in the New Hampshire Bulletin.

That’s what almost everyone who pays attention to the price of heating fuels has said about the coming winter, and for good reason. Prices for natural gas and heating oil are skyrocketing. And as much of the electricity in the Northeast is produced by burning natural gas, electricity prices are also rising.

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Add to that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast of an unusually cold winter, and the result is an expensive winter for New Hampshire residents trying to heat their homes and pay their electric bills.

Households with a few coins can turn to services such as weatherization which will pay off even faster given the high energy costs. Others will likely turn to alternative fuels, such as wood or wood chips, to lower their bills.

But low-income people, who already spend most of their income on energy, will feel the crisis most strongly. The cost increases come at a time when one in five New Hampshire families already report struggling to pay for regular household expenses, according to US Census Bureau data that was collected between late September and mid-October.

The higher cost of energy is linked to inflation and other factors that extend far beyond state borders. Because U.S. gas producers can get a higher price for gas overseas, that’s increasingly where they’re sending it, according to Sam Evans-Brown, executive director of Clean Energy New Hampshire, a non-profit organization that advocates for clean energy.

In recent years, energy prices have also been abnormally low.

“The edifying tale here is really that we are too reliant on a fuel that we thought was $ 2 per million BTUs forever. And really, the story is, it was artificially low price. Now the mistaken belief that this was the norm is coming home, ”said Evans-Brown.

Evans-Brown talks about natural gas, used by just over 20% of New Hampshire households for heating. These households could see a 30 percent increase in heating costs from last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

For the two in five homes in New Hampshire that heat with oil – the most common type of heating system in the state – expenses are expected to increase by 43%.

“There is nowhere else in the United States that relies so much on heating oil as New England. This means that these price fluctuations are really unaffordable, ”said Evans-Brown.

But neither natural gas nor fuel oil is expected to experience the biggest price increase. The 17 percent of New Hampshire households that heat with propane are expected to see a 54 percent increase. About 10% of the state heats with electricity and the remaining 9% uses some other heat source.

For Evans-Brown, fluctuations in the prices of imported fossil fuels are another reason to block fuels that will not vary significantly over time: the glare of the sun, the wind moving through the atmosphere.

But if boosting renewables could prevent that from happening in the future – as Evans-Brown sees – there’s also the frustration of seeing policies that could help families now put on hiatus. This is precisely what has happened with the state’s energy efficiency programs.

Eric Chabot saw it with his own eyes. Chabot is an energy auditor for Turn Cycle Solutions, and he says about 95 percent of his business goes through the state’s energy efficiency program, New Hampshire Saves. The program offers incentives to reduce the cost of energy efficiency measures, but it has been in a state of uncertainty since the start of the year, when a 3-year plan was supposed to go into effect but did not. not done due to the failure of the Utilities Commission. to approve it.

Chabot found the conversation at State House frustrating because he believes lawmakers who oppose increased spending on energy efficiency – funded by what’s called the System Benefits Charge – are pushing through the interests of the state’s largest corporations at the expense of the typical Granite Stater, for which health and well-being is at stake.

For Chabot, the best part of the job is seeing people feel more comfortable in their home. “It’s hearing the dramatic impact on how people can use their homes and live,” he said during an energy audit on a house in Milford that a colleague of his recently bought.

Weathering a home is one thing residents can do to lower their heating bills and keep their homes warmer. And this is usually the reason people turn to Chabot, in addition to the desire to use less fuel for the good of human health and the environment.

When energy listeners enter a house, they are looking for evidence of who came before them and what they did to warm the house. Michael Turcotte, owner of Turn Cycle Solutions, said that in a 1752 home he even found old corn cobs and newspaper stuffed into the walls for insulation. Turcotte said a typical project with the New Hampshire Saves program would cost around $ 4,000. An owner would typically pay around $ 2,000 of that amount, and the payback would take around 15 months. But if energy prices double, the return on investment might only take 7 months, he said.

While Chabot does an energy audit of a home, he tries to determine how leaky there are – where cold air comes in – and what he can do to improve efficiency. It starts at the top of the house and goes down. The final is a test called the blower door, where a powerful fan blows air out of the house to find places where cold air enters the house.

“I have certainly seen worse, but it can be improved,” he said of the Milford House.

While the state has suspended increases in energy efficiency programs, a fuel assistance program is receiving an additional $ 35 million in US federal funding for the bailout. People who are struggling to pay their bills can apply for grants to offset the cost of any type of fuel they use to heat their homes. The state’s tax committee voted unanimously to accept the money on Friday. Last year, the program served 25,000 households, and the Department of Energy estimates its typical budget to be around $ 25 to $ 28 million, so it is expected to more than double this year.

Eligibility for the program is based on income and household size; for a family of four, the program is open to those earning less than $ 69,686 per year. The program typically pays around $ 889, although the amount can vary between $ 158 and $ 1,575, depending on family size, income, energy costs and type of housing. Those interested in registering can apply through their local community action agency.

State utilities are also worried about the large bills they will send and the impact that will have on residents of the state. Liberty and Unitil both said they are considering how to connect customers who struggle to pay their bills with assistance programs.

“Liberty is very concerned about the increase in gasoline prices happening across the country as it could cause financial hardship for some of our customers. Prices for all forms of energy are increasing this year, including electricity and propane, ”a company spokesperson said in a written statement.

Unitil, another state electricity and natural gas utility, called it a global supply crisis. Unitil spokesperson Alec O’Meara said the company will offer flexible payment plans and refer customers who are struggling to pay to programs offered by community action programs in the state.

Liberty also said customers can take steps “to help ease the burden of rising gas costs.” They have a budget billing program that allows customers to spread payments over the year to smooth out seasonal fluctuations in their monthly gas bill. They offer payment terms for those with an overdue balance, and they have a reduced rate for natural gas for households where someone is enrolled in at least one qualifying assistance program.

When energy prices for oil and gas go up, Scott Nichols said he often sees people turning to alternatives like wood. Nichols owns Tarm Biomass, a company that sells different types of wood-fired boilers.

“The biggest driver of our sales is the high price of oil and gas,” Nichols said, although he hasn’t received as many calls recently as he expected.

Of the $ 6 billion a year New Hampshire spends on energy, much leaves the state because it is spent on fossil fuels that are not produced. Neighboring states like Vermont have offered incentives to encourage residents to switch to wood, which is grown locally, in part because of the economic benefits to the local economy.

“Even places that have saved money with their existing pellet or woodchip boiler will save a ton of money in a year like this,” Nichols said. “All of a sudden, their ROI could go from 10 years to two years at once.”

The New Hampshire Bulletin is part of States Newsroom, a network of news offices supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c (3) public charity. The New Hampshire Bulletin maintains editorial independence. Contact editor-in-chief Dana Wormald with any questions: [email protected]. Follow the New Hampshire Bulletin on Facebook and Twitter.